Source: Formula1.com
After 12 of 24 rounds, McLaren leads by 31. A year ago at the same point they led by 95. The midfield has caught up[1].
What changed
Hamilton at Ferrari is real. He has out-qualified Leclerc in 6 of 12 races. The car suits his late-braking style. Ferrari's mid-season upgrade in Spain narrowed the gap to McLaren further.
McLaren's title defence is technically dominant but Norris has had two DNFs (Imola hydraulic, Canada gearbox). Without those, the gap would be 60 points and the championship would be effectively over.
Red Bull's slide continues. The 2024 chassis problems carried into the 2025 RB21. Verstappen is over-driving an unbalanced car and his frustration is visible.
The Ferrari path
Win three races in a row. Hope McLaren stumbles. Realistic: Hungary, Spa, and Monza form a stretch where Ferrari traditionally over-performs.
The McLaren path
Just keep finishing on the podium. Two cars in points every race. Title is theirs by Singapore.
Where to follow
The Ergast API and fastF1 library give you free access to all the timing data behind these charts[2].
About the data
A note on what the numbers in this post represent so you can read them with the right confidence:
- "My own bench" rows are personal measurements on my own hardware. They are honest about my setup and reproducible there, but they should not be treated as universal benchmark scores.
- Benchmark numbers attributed to public sources (Geekbench Browser, DXOMARK, NotebookCheck, FIA timing) are illustrative — the trend is what matters, not the third decimal place. Cross-check against the source for anything you would act on financially.
- Client outcomes and ROI percentages in business-focused posts are anonymised composites drawn from my own consulting work. Real numbers, real direction, sanitised so individual clients are not identifiable.
- Foldable crease-depth and similar engineering measurements are estimates pulled from teardown reports and reviewer claims; manufacturers do not publish these directly.
- Forecasts and "what I bet" lines are exactly that — opinions, not predictions with a track record yet.
If you spot a number that contradicts a source you trust, tell me — I would rather correct it than be the chart that was off by 6 percent and pretended otherwise.