Verstappen took the 2024 season opener at Bahrain by 22.4 seconds from Perez. McLaren came home fourth and fifth. The temptation is to call this a Red Bull whitewash. The data says otherwise.

Lap time deltas in clear air In the second stint, when Norris had clean air and a fresh hard, his pace was within 0.15s of Verstappen. The gap on track came from one bad pit stop and an overtake on Sainz that lost Norris three seconds.

The Ferrari problem Leclerc and Sainz finished P4 and P3. Sainz was racing on appendicitis pain medication. Leclerc was managing brakes from lap 20.

Mercedes A disaster. Russell P5, Hamilton P7. The W15 is not the W14 (no porpoising), but the rear suspension is biting them on direction changes. Watch their pace at Suzuka in two weeks: that track will tell us more than Bahrain ever could.

What I expect McLaren win their first race by Imola. Verstappen still wins the championship. Mercedes finish fourth in the constructors at best.

For a longer take on the McLaren upturn: [Why Norris finally won in Miami](/blog/f1-norris-miami-2024).

Bahrain 2024: the season opener that told us nothing

Lap time deltas in clear air In the second stint, when Norris had clean air and a fresh hard, his pace was within 0.15s of Verstappen. The gap on track came from one bad pit stop and an overtake on Sainz that lost Norris three seconds.

The Ferrari problem Leclerc and Sainz finished P4 and P3. Sainz was racing on appendicitis pain medication. Leclerc was managing brakes from lap 20.

Mercedes A disaster. Russell P5, Hamilton P7. The W15 is not the W14 (no porpoising), but the rear suspension is biting them on direction changes. Watch their pace at Suzuka in two weeks: that track will tell us more than Bahrain ever could.

What I expect McLaren win their first race by Imola. Verstappen still wins the championship. Mercedes finish fourth in the constructors at best.

Have a project in mind?